CBBI Index 2.0
A reworked Bitcoin Bull/Bear Index that blends 8 independent on-chart metrics — Mayer Multiple, 2-year MA multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, drawdown from ATH, 1-year log return, log Z-score, log-time trend residual and halving cycle position — into a single 0–100 confidence score. Built to pinpoint cycle tops and bottoms more accurately than the original CBBI.
Late-cycle bottom — high reward / low risk
BTC Price × CBBI Confidence
Logarithmic price overlaid with color-coded confidence band. Hover for detail.
Component metrics
Price ÷ 200-day moving average. Cycle-aware: ≥1.4 = top zone.
Price relative to 2-year MA. ≥2.0× = top, <1.0× = bottom.
111d MA vs 2× 350d MA. Modern cycles top at 0.55–0.75 (no full cross).
Distance below all-time high. 0% at tops, 75–85% at bottoms.
12-month return. ≥+100% = top zone, ≤−40% = bottom zone.
6-month return. Strong gains/losses confirm trend exhaustion.
Std deviations above 4-year log-mean. >+1.5σ = top zone.
30-day Relative Strength Index. ≥70 overbought, ≤30 oversold.
Day 796 post-halving. Tops cluster 420–560 days after halving.
Cosine-modeled 4-year halving cycle. Peaks ~530d post-halving (Oct 2025 target). Provides time-based confirmation alongside price/momentum signals.
How CBBI 2.0 works
8 independent signals
Each metric is computed from BTC daily closes only — no opaque on-chain data, no API gating. Every reading is converted to a 0–100 score using its own historical percentile rank, so a value of 85 always means "more extreme than 85% of all observations in BTC's history".
Weighted composite
Cycle-defining metrics (Pi Cycle Top, 2Y MA, Mayer Multiple) carry higher weight. Slower-moving context metrics (halving position, trend residual) carry lower weight. The composite is a weighted mean — never letting a single signal dominate.
Why it differs from CBBI 1.0
The original CBBI relies on third-party on-chain feeds that go stale or paywalled. CBBI 2.0 is fully reproducible from public price history, and adds a power-law trend residual + halving cycle position so it stays meaningful late in cycles when classic top indicators saturate.
Reading the score
- ≥ 85 — historic top zone, distribution likely imminent
- 70–85 — late-cycle warning, momentum stretched
- 30–70 — mid-cycle / chop
- 15–30 — bottoming process, asymmetric R:R
- ≤ 15 — generational accumulation zone
Not financial advice. CBBI 2.0 is an analytical model derived from historical Bitcoin price data. Past performance and historical patterns do not guarantee future market behavior.