Pi Cycle Top Indicator
The Pi Cycle Top is one of the most accurate signals ever back-tested on Bitcoin: a simple crossover between two moving averages that has flagged every major cycle top within a few days.
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The formula
A signal fires when:
111-day SMA > 350-day SMA × 2The ratio 350 / 111 ≈ 3.153 — close to π — gives the indicator its name.
Historical track record
- Apr 9, 2013First parabolic top$166
- Dec 16, 2013Second 2013 top — within 3 days of cycle high$1,160
- Dec 17, 2017Within 24 hours of cycle top$19,400
- Apr 12, 2021First leg of the double top$63,200
How to read it
- The 111-day SMA reacts faster than the 350-day SMA × 2 — when the fast line crosses up through the slow line, momentum has compressed dramatically.
- A crossover historically resolves within 1–3 days of the actual cycle top.
- It is a top-only signal — it does not flag bottoms.
- It can produce false positives in sideways or post-halving accumulation regimes.
- Use alongside the CBBI Index 2.0 and MVRV Z-Score for confirmation.
Why it might fail next cycle
Pi Cycle was discovered after the 2017 top and back-fitted to four data points. As Bitcoin's market cap grows and volatility compresses, parabolic acceleration may not be steep enough to trigger the crossover. Treat a non-firing signal as ambiguous, not bullish.