Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) values Bitcoin purely on scarcity. It's the same metric used to think about gold and silver — and it's the most controversial Bitcoin model ever published.
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Formula
S2F = circulating supply / annual new issuanceThe original PlanB model fits: price ≈ 0.4 × S2F^3 — meaning each halving (which doubles S2F) should multiply price by ~8×.
Bitcoin's S2F across halvings
- 2009 – 2012≈ 1.850 BTC block reward — Pre-halving — abundance
- 2012 – 2016≈ 825 BTC block reward — Post-1st halving
- 2016 – 2020≈ 2512.5 BTC block reward — Post-2nd halving — silver-tier scarcity
- 2020 – 2024≈ 566.25 BTC block reward — Post-3rd halving — gold-tier scarcity
- 2024 – 2028≈ 1193.125 BTC block reward — Post-4th halving — above gold
For reference: gold ≈ 60, silver ≈ 22. After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin became the scarcest monetary asset on the planet by this metric.
Why critics call it broken
- The 2021–2022 cycle peaked far below the model's projected $100k+ band, then collapsed to ~$15k.
- S2F treats Bitcoin's value as a function of supply alone — ignoring demand entirely.
- The original regression had only 4 data points (one per halving), making the fit fragile.
- S2FX, a follow-up cross-asset model, has performed even worse out-of-sample.
How to actually use it
Treat S2F as a narrative tool — useful for communicating the supply shock around halvings — not as a price target. Pair it with demand-side metrics like ETF flows, on-chain accumulation and the MVRV Z-Score.